Litigation risk
has a timeline.
Underwrite every case, price the capital at risk, and see what it does to the book — before a dollar goes in.
Not just when a case resolves.
Whether the capital comes back, and what it does to the book.
Timing is the engine. Everything above is what it drives. Tertius forecasts timing and disposition — never merits or damages.
Every case has a clock.
Capital isn't committed indefinitely — it's committed until a case resolves, and that timeline determines when it returns, when it can be redeployed, and how a portfolio performs. Tertius makes it measurable.
Duration is only half the forecast.
A three-year case isn't one forecast — it may settle, transfer to MDL, or end another way entirely. Tertius forecasts both the timeline and the path.
The question isn't when.
It's whether your capital comes back.
A dismissal is a loss. A settlement is a return. Tertius reads the odds of each from millions of resolved dockets, so the ending is priced before a dollar goes in.
Procedural priors from mature cohorts — how cases end, not who deserves to win. Tertius forecasts timing and disposition, never merits or damages.
The clock, the ending, the capital — measured on cases you've already closed.
The forecast begins on page one.
The complaint already carries measurable signals — jury demand, class allegations, pro se litigants, district selection. Read at filing, before the first scheduling order is entered.
Time is part of the risk.
The same payoff, earned later, is a lower return.
Timing isn't an operational detail.
It's a financial variable.
Plan capital with time in mind.
Cases don't move independently. Portfolios fail together. Courts slow together. Settlement behavior shifts together. Doctrine ripples through a book at once.
Because knowing when capital returns is just as important as knowing if it returns.
Your book, priced with time in mind — before a dollar goes in.
Open every capital meeting with it.
The analysis wins the first meeting. The ritual wins the renewal: the brief that opens Monday, the sheet on the projector, the journal of what you decided, and the covenants standing guard in between.
Starter carries the sheet and the journal; Fund adds the watch — alerts, covenant checks, underwriting gates, and the weekly brief. See what sits in each plan →
Built from outcomes.
Measured against reality.
Every forecast is grounded in real federal civil cases. Every model is graded on held-out cases it never saw during training. Performance isn't estimated—it's published.
Every release includes:
Reproducible, versioned, and open to inspection.
Graded on your own book.
Everyone gets the same public-record model. Only you see it scored against your cases.
And you can see it working: every forecast is graded against your own realized outcomes, out of sample — the accuracy number no in-house spreadsheet can produce.
Built for trust.
No black boxes, no invented milestones. Just duration forecasts you can reproduce and defend.
Fair questions.
The ones skeptics ask first — answered the way everything on this page is answered.
Why not just use the average time to resolution?
Because the risk lives in the spread, not the middle. Cases of the same type resolve anywhere from under two years to past fifteen, and the median itself moves by multiples with court, claim, and amount. Published averages also count only closed cases — the slowest cases are still open, so the average can't see them. Tertius forecasts the full distribution, counts every case, and updates the forecast as a case ages.
Case length depends on attorney strategy. What does a timing forecast actually mean?
A calibrated range, not a theory of the case. Twenty years of real dockets already contain every delay tactic and settlement posture attorneys actually use — the forecast is the distribution those behaviors produce. A life table prices lifespan without knowing anyone's story. This is the same discipline, applied to dockets.
Does a longer case mean a worse outcome?
No — it means a worse return on the same outcome. The same recovery, arriving two years later, can cut annualized return in half, and capital locked in one case can't fund the next. Duration is a financial variable, independent of merits. Tertius forecasts the clock; the merits stay yours.
How is the model graded?
Out of sample, on more than a million held-out cases the model never saw in training — still-open cases included, never dropped. The scorecard above is live, every forecast ships with the error record of the model that produced it, and the underlying data is cross-checked against the federal judiciary's own published statistics.
Which courts does it cover?
Federal civil, by design. Patent, antitrust, securities, and MDL mass torts live in federal court — and so does most of the capital deployed against them. Every case in the dataset is a real federal docket.
The Capital Timing Audit.
We replay your last closed book under your own duration assumption and under Tertius's blind at-filing forecasts — identical merits draws, so every delta is timing — and hand your IC a stamped one-pager: Δ IRR, capital-months locked, peak lockup, and your prior graded on your own cases.
If we don't beat your stated prior on your book, the audit is free.
Fee credited against an annual plan when you convert.
Every forecast is measured against held-back cases and published with its historical accuracy.
No analyst estimates.
No hidden adjustments.
No artificial certainty.
Just forecasts, measured against reality.
See it on your
own book.
Book a backtest and Tertius Acta 6 replays your own closed book — outcomes you already know — and prices the difference against the duration assumption you plan with today: IRR, capital lockup, and recycling, in cash time, before you rely on a single forecast.
Book a backtest on your closed cases →