What is calibrated timing worth to your book?
Enter your book economics and see where timing intelligence pays: reserves released from the slow tail, capital redeployed sooner, and the slowest candidates caught at underwriting. Durations come from our published benchmarks (9.1M federal civil cases); the method is on the model page. Nothing you enter is sent or stored.
Estimated annual expected value
$3.8Mper year
≈ 159× the Fund tier ($2k/mo, $24k/yr) on a $20M annual book.
An estimate driven by your inputs and our published calibration — not a guarantee.
Reserve efficiency
$2.5M65% of total
= cases/yr × (1 − tail share) × commitment × (p90 − median) yrs × cost of capital × recoverable share
Without calibrated timing, reserves sit at p90 for every case; only the recoverable share of the gap is counted, minus the screened tail (already claimed by tail avoidance below).
Capital recycling
$335k9% of total
= book × (lag recovered ÷ median yrs) × (cost of capital × recoverable share)
Capital with a known return date redeploys sooner; the reinvestment spread is haircut by the same conservative share.
Tail avoidance
$1M26% of total
= tail share × cases/yr × (p90 − median) yrs × (commitment × cost of capital + carry cost)
The slowest ~10% of candidates would have run to p90 and are declined or re-priced, avoiding financing and carry over the extra years.
Every assumption, editable
Three constants drive the estimate. Each is deliberately conservative; move any of them and the number updates live.
- 50% — recoverable share of the reserve gap: Conservatively assume only half of the p90-to-median reserve gap can actually be released; the same haircut is applied to the reinvestment spread.
- 0.25 yr — redeployment lag recovered (years): Capital with a forecast return date can be committed ahead of arrival; assume timing intelligence trims a quarter-year of idle lag per case cycle.
- 10% — slow-tail share screened at underwriting: Assume the slowest ~10% of candidate cases would have run to p90 and are instead declined or re-priced before commitment.
Want the number on your actual book, not assumptions?
Run a blind backtest on your closed cases — we forecast them as of their filing dates and you compare against what actually happened. Every tier includes it; see pricing.
Or make it an engagement: the Capital Timing Audit replays your closed book, prices the timing delta in IRR and capital-months, and hands your IC a stamped one-pager — fixed fee, credited when you convert, free if we don't beat your stated prior on your own cases.
This calculator estimates expected value from published duration benchmarks and the conservative assumptions above — it is not a guarantee and not a claim of specific IRR uplift. Tertius forecasts timing, not merits or damages. Federal civil only. Underlying numbers: the model · benchmarks.