What is calibrated timing worth to your book?
Enter your book economics and see where timing intelligence pays: reserves released from the slow tail, capital redeployed sooner, and the slowest candidates caught at underwriting. Durations come from our published benchmarks (9.1M federal civil cases); the method is on the model page. Nothing you enter is sent or stored.
Estimated annual expected value
$3.6Mper year
≈ 151× the Fund tier ($2k/mo, $24k/yr) on a $20M annual book.
An estimate driven by your inputs and our published calibration — not a guarantee.
Reserve efficiency
$2.3M63% of total
= cases/yr × (1 − tail share) × commitment × (p90 − median) yrs × cost of capital × recoverable share
Without calibrated timing, reserves sit at p90 for every case; only the recoverable share of the gap is counted, minus the screened tail (already claimed by tail avoidance below).
Capital recycling
$410k11% of total
= book × (lag recovered ÷ median yrs) × (cost of capital × recoverable share)
Capital with a known return date redeploys sooner; the reinvestment spread is haircut by the same conservative share.
Tail avoidance
$932k26% of total
= tail share × cases/yr × (p90 − median) yrs × (commitment × cost of capital + carry cost)
The slowest ~10% of candidates would have run to p90 and are declined or re-priced, avoiding financing and carry over the extra years.
Every assumption, editable
Three constants drive the estimate. Each is deliberately conservative; move any of them and the number updates live.
- 50% — recoverable share of the reserve gap: Conservatively assume only half of the p90-to-median reserve gap can actually be released; the same haircut is applied to the reinvestment spread.
- 0.25 yr — redeployment lag recovered (years): Capital with a forecast return date can be committed ahead of arrival; assume timing intelligence trims a quarter-year of idle lag per case cycle.
- 10% — slow-tail share screened at underwriting: Assume the slowest ~10% of candidate cases would have run to p90 and are instead declined or re-priced before commitment.
Want the number on your actual book, not assumptions?
Run a blind backtest on your closed cases — we forecast them as of their filing dates and you compare against what actually happened. Every tier includes it; see pricing.
This calculator estimates expected value from published duration benchmarks and the conservative assumptions above — it is not a guarantee and not a claim of specific IRR uplift. Tertius forecasts timing, not merits or damages. Federal civil only. Underlying numbers: the model · benchmarks.